In our region, La Nias, particularly moderate to strong events, are often associated with dry, mild winters with modest snowfall. Horizontal arrows pointing left represent wind departures from average that are easterly, and arrows pointing right represent wind departures from average that are westerly. StormReady Cassou, C., 2008: Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden Julian Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Join our Farmhouse Today. For those curiouswhy this occurs, Nat Johnson wrote an article on it for the NOAA Climate Blog on May 27, 2021. Figure 2. When La Nia develops across the tropical central/eastern Pacific Ocean, it can affect areas thousands of miles away, including the United States. There's an 87% chance that La Nia conditions will persist this winter, according to forecasters. ENSOshifts the atmospheric circulation(notably, thejet stream) in ways that affect wintertemperature and precipitation over the U.S. Copyright 2023 NBCUniversal Media, LLC. Maybe this year can end the streak. So take a bucket of salt. The CPC winter forecasts to the right showthe most likely outcome where there is greater confidence, but this is not the only possible outcome. See Tippett et al. But we have chosen factors that in the past as a guide, have proved to have at least some predictive value. 2022-2023 Extended Winter Forecast; 2022-2023 Canadian Extended Winter Forecast; 2023 Spring Extended Weather Forecast; 2023 Summer Extended Weather Forecast; . The MJO can modulate the timing and strength of monsoons (e.g., Jones and Carvalho, 2002; Lavender and Matthews, 2009), influence tropical cyclone numbers and strength in nearly all ocean basins (e.g., Maloney and Hartmann, 2000), and result in jet stream changes that can lead to cold air outbreaks, extreme heat events, and flooding rains over the United States and North America (Higgins et al. Washington Department of Fish & Wildlife. Often, though not always, the AO and NAO share the same phase, especially when averaged over the course of the winter. Climate Variability: North AtlanticOscillation (NAO).
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